"For today, that is most importantly that the US-Israel-Iran war is just part of a world war that we are in and that isn't going to end anytime soon."

今天最重要的是：美以伊战争只是我们所处的一场世界大战的一部分，而且这场战争不会很快结束。

"Together, these conflicts make up a very classic world war that is analogous to past 'world wars.' Past 'world wars' consisted of interrelated wars that were generally slipped into without any clear start dates or declarations of war."

这些冲突合在一起构成了一个非常典型的世界大战，类似于以往的"世界大战"。过去的世界大战由相互关联的战争组成，通常在没有明确开始日期或宣战的情况下逐步展开。

"I have many indicators suggesting that we are in the part of the Big Cycle when the monetary order, some domestic political orders, and the geopolitical world order are breaking down."

我有许多指标表明，我们正处于大周期中货币秩序、一些国内政治秩序以及地缘政治世界秩序正在分崩离析的阶段。

"The classic dynamic at this stage in the cycle is for conflicts to intensify rather than subside."

在这一周期阶段，经典的动态是冲突会加剧而非缓和。

"China consumes 80-90% of Iran's oil output, which adds to the power of its relationship with Iran."

中国消费伊朗石油产量的80%–90%，这进一步增强了其与伊朗关系的力量。

"It is now clear that all these treaties, especially those with the US, are subject to change and that actual actions will speak louder than agreements."

现在已经很清楚，所有这些条约，尤其是与美国的条约，都是可能变化的，实际行动将比协议本身更有分量。

"The US now has 750-800 military bases in 70-80 countries (by the way, China only has 1) and has commitments that create expensive vulnerabilities all over the world."

美国现在在70到80个国家拥有750到800个军事基地（顺便说一句，中国只有1个），并且有导致全球各地产生昂贵脆弱性的承诺。

"As history has shown, the most reliable indicator of which country is likely to win is not which is most powerful; it is which can endure the most pain the longest."

正如历史所示，最可靠的判断哪个国家更有可能获胜的指标，不是哪个国家最强大；而是哪个国家能承受痛苦、坚持得最久。

"I'm not saying that things will definitely progress further along this cycle to an all-out world war. I don't know what's going to happen."

我并不是说事情一定会沿着这个循环进一步发展成一场全面的世界大战。我不知道接下来会发生什么。

"The world order has changed from a multilateral rules-based world order led by the dominant US power and its allies (e.g., the G7) to a might-is-right world order with no single dominant power enforcing order."

世界秩序已从由占主导地位的美国及其盟友（如七国集团）引领的、多边规则为基础的世界秩序，转变为没有单一主导力量来维持秩序的"以实力为准"的世界秩序。

"There is already less confidence among some countries that the US will defend them, which, when combined with the recognition that nuclear weapons are a great defensive as well as offensive power, is leading to more talk among countries' senior policy makers about obtaining nuclear weapons."

已经有一些国家对美国会否保卫它们的信心下降，这与人们逐渐认识到核武器既是强大的进攻力量也是强大的防御力量相结合，正在促使各国高级决策者更多地讨论获取核武器。

"This is now an all-out war that appears to be intensifying, with all sides depleting their resources."

这现在已经是一场全面战争，且看起来正处于加剧阶段，各方都在消耗其资源。

"The Taiwan issue, which is a nonnegotiable sovereignty issue to Chinese leaders and the Chinese people, remains a flash point. All parties are openly preparing for a military war."

台湾问题对中国领导人和中国人民来说是一个不可谈判的主权问题，仍然是一个引爆点。各方都在公开为可能的军事战争做准备。

"More likely, the attack(s) would be made too subtly to even notice. If you don't know what I mean by that, I suggest that you read The Art of War."

更可能的是，攻击会以非常微妙的方式进行，甚至难以察觉。如果你不明白我这话的意思，我建议你读一读《孙子兵法》。

"This active military war involving all the great military powers (except China) is a very risky situation, though it has not escalated beyond Ukraine for three years, which is good because a broader war has thus far been avoided."

这场涉及所有大国军事强国（除中国外）的现役军事战争是一个非常危险的局面，尽管三年来它还没有扩展到乌克兰以外，这一点是好的，因为到目前为止较大规模的战争已被避免。

"North Korea is a provocative nuclear power that has shown a willingness to fight for other countries that it is aligned with against the United States."

朝鲜是一个挑衅性的核大国，愿意为与其结盟的其他国家对抗美国而战。

"There is a NATO-like treaty between the US and the Philippines... It wouldn't take much—e.g., a ship collision, a Chinese attack on a Philippine vessel, a blockade, or a missile incident—for the US to be expected to step in to meet its treaty obligations, yet it is inconceivable that the American electorate would stand for that."

美菲之间有类似北约的条约……只需一点触发因素——例如船只相撞、中国对菲律宾船只的攻击、封锁，或导弹事件——美国就会被期望介入以履行其条约义务，然而可以想象的是，美国选民不会容忍这种情况。

"That's my up-to-date big picture perspective. Because I use it to influence how I invest and what I should do in other aspects of my life, I will turn to those things next."

这就是我最新的总体观点。因为我用它来影响我的投资决策以及我在生活其他方面应采取的行动，接下来我将转向这些方面。

"I still hope for a peaceful world built on win-win relationships rather than damaged by lose-lose ones."

我仍然希望世界能建立在双赢的关系上，而不是被双输的关系所破坏。

"By 'classic Big Cycle way,' I mean that events are primarily driven by the five big forces."

所谓"经典的大周期方式"，我的意思是事件主要由五个重大力量驱动。

"Having good indicators and following them is invaluable."

拥有良好的指标并跟踪它们是非常宝贵的。